Canadian Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Liam Draxl

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Merida Aguilar’s match with Liam Draxl is a first-round Canadian Open meeting, and the market will pay out on whichever player advances. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share means the named outcome happens and a **NO** share means it does not; here, the contract is effectively a simple winner-or-resolution check on whether Merida Aguilar advances against Draxl, with a special 50-50 outcome if the match is not played, ends level, or remains unresolved beyond seven days of the scheduled date. [17]

A 100% crowd-implied probability is usually a sign that traders believe the outcome is already locked in, often because the match has finished, been decided by withdrawal, or is being treated as fully resolved by live tennis feeds. Public scoreboards show the fixture as live or listed around 3–4 August 2026, but the market’s own settlement window runs to 10 August, which leaves room for late official confirmation or a rules-based fallback if the event never reaches a completed result. [1][2][3][5][17]

The main catalysts are official ATP or event-organiser updates: whether the match has started, whether it was completed, and whether either player withdrew or the schedule slipped. That matters because this market does not need a long-term tournament view; it only needs a clean ruling on this one contest, and the settlement rules explicitly defer to official results and a 50-50 fallback if the match is cancelled or delayed too long. [17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Canadian Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Liam Draxl across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.