Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin

Platform comparison

Market context

Nicolas Arseneault, a 19-year-old Canadian, faces Andres Martin in a Granby Challenger match originally set for 10:00 AM ET on 13 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if Arseneault wins and advances; a NO share pays if Martin wins or the match is voided under the market’s tie rules. The crowd currently prices Arseneault’s chance at 25%, implying Martin is the clear favourite.

Historically, young Challengers players ranked below 500—Arseneault’s career-high is 491, achieved in August 2025—often struggle against established opponents with higher rankings and more main-draw experience [1][2]. In similar Granby and other North American Challenger events, lower-ranked newcomers have advanced only about 20–30% of the time when facing players with multiple Challenger titles, making the current 25% probability consistent with past outcomes for this ranking gap.

Traders should monitor the official ATP Tour schedule for any delay or cancellation notices before the 10:00 AM ET start, as a match not played or delayed beyond seven days resolves the market to 50–50 [4]. Arseneault’s recent 1–1 singles record in 2025 and limited 2026 prize money of $2,526 suggest he is still building match fitness, while Martin’s experience could be a key factor if conditions favour consistency [2][4]. Any late injury updates or entry changes from the ATP will be the primary catalysts to watch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.