Swedish Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Platform comparison

Market context

The Swedish Open match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Thiago Agustin Tirante is the real-world event determining this market’s outcome, with the winner advancing to the next round. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the specified outcome occurs—here, if Basilashvili wins—while a NO share pays if he loses or the match is voided. The crowd currently implies a 22% chance for Basilashvili to advance, suggesting most traders expect Tirante to prevail.

Historical tennis models and recent previews consistently favour Tirante in this matchup. Dimers’ simulation assigns him a 65% win probability, while Tennis.com projects a 70% chance of victory for the Argentine[2][6]. Comparable ATP matches in Bastad often see lower-ranked but consistent players like Tirante outperform higher-profile opponents on clay, reinforcing the market’s lean against Basilashvili despite his experience.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements for player fitness, as injuries or walkovers can void the market and trigger a 50-50 settlement[1][7]. The match is scheduled for 10:00am on 16 July in Bastad, and any delay beyond seven days without a result also resets the odds to even[1]. With the settlement window closing on 22 July 2026, timely updates from official ATP sources or tournament organisers will be critical catalysts for price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.