Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon, ranked 42, faces Timofey Skatov, ranked 163, in the first round of the Swiss Open Gstaad on clay courts in Switzerland today. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that Collignon will win and advance, while a NO share bets he will lose; the current 51% implied probability suggests the crowd sees this as a near-even contest despite the ranking gap.

Historical precedents in ATP clay-court tournaments show that ranking disparities often narrow on this surface, where form and recent momentum outweigh pure world position. Collignon and Skatov have met once before, with Skatov winning 6–4, 4–6, 6–4 at the Bonn Challenger in 2025, meaning the current 51% probability slightly favours Collignon despite his previous loss [3]. This mirrors patterns where a higher-ranked player rebounds quickly after a narrow defeat, particularly when playing on their preferred surface.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements regarding player fitness and any last-minute schedule changes, as clay-court matches are susceptible to weather delays. Collignon’s 2026 win rate of 71% (29–12) contrasts with Skatov’s less consistent form, making current performance trends a key catalyst [9]. Any news of injury or withdrawal from either player before the 8:00 AM ET start could shift probabilities sharply, given the market’s sensitivity to unplayed or delayed outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.