Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon and Valentin Vacherot are set to contest the quarterfinal of the ATP Swiss Open in Gstaad, with the match scheduled to begin at 10:30 local time on 17 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that Collignon will advance past Vacherot, while a NO share bets he will not; the current crowd-implied probability of 56% suggests the market views Collignon as the slight favourite to win this encounter.

Historical models and betting odds consistently frame Collignon as the more likely winner in this matchup. Dimers’ tennis simulation assigns him a 57% win probability, closely aligning with the market’s 56% figure, while Tennis.com projects a 60% chance for Collignon to prevail [1][2]. Bookmakers have priced him as the favourite at -175, which translates to an implied 63.6% chance of winning, indicating the crowd is slightly more cautious than traditional odds suggest [4]. These comparable cases suggest the current probability is well-calibrated, reflecting a tight contest where surface conditions and recent form will be decisive.

Traders should monitor the official ATP draw confirmation and any pre-match injury updates, as delays or cancellations could trigger the market’s 50-50 settlement clause. The match is part of the quarterfinal stage, meaning both players must be physically fit and available; any withdrawal before the first serve would resolve the market as a tie. Recent coverage confirms the match is scheduled for Friday, 17 July, with no reported delays as of now [3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.