National Bank Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Kyrian Jacquet

Platform comparison

Market context

Gabriel Diallo is the favourite to beat Kyrian Jacquet in their National Bank Open meeting, and that is the outcome a **YES** share on this market is betting on; a **NO** share pays if Jacquet advances instead. The market also has a fallback rule: if the match is not played, ends level, or is pushed back more than seven days without a winner, it resolves 50-50 rather than to either player.

That 100% crowd-implied probability reflects how one-sided the market has become, but tennis markets are usually read as a blend of schedule confidence and expected match result rather than a guarantee. Pre-match odds from multiple books and prediction sites generally leaned towards Diallo, with prices implying roughly a low-to-mid 50s win chance for him rather than certainty.[1][2][12][14] That matters because a “certain” price in prediction markets often signals that traders think the contract is almost entirely about event completion, not just sporting strength.

The main catalysts to watch are straightforward: confirmation that the match is actually completed, any official change to the start time, and withdrawals or retirements that could trigger the market’s cancellation or 50-50 rules. The scheduled slot was Sunday, 2 August 2026 at 7:00 PM EDT, and live listings showed the match on the draw for the National Bank Open, so any rescheduling or incomplete finish would be the key event risk rather than form alone.[5][7][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews National Bank Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Kyrian Jacquet across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.