Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Jack Draper and Gabriel Diallo are set to compete in a men’s singles tennis match at the Lexus Eastbourne Open, an ATP 250 grass-court tournament in Great Britain, originally scheduled for 9:30AM ET on 25 June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event described occurs—here, that Jack Draper advances—while a NO share pays if it does not. The current crowd-implied probability of YES is 0%, suggesting the market expects Draper to lose or the match not to happen as planned.

Historically, 0% probabilities in tennis markets often precede cancellations due to weather, player withdrawals, or scheduling errors, rather than outright defeats. For instance, at the 2024 Eastbourne Open, several matches were delayed or abandoned due to rain, leading to unresolved markets that settled at 50-50. Traders should watch official updates from the ATP Tour and LTA for schedule changes, player lineups, or withdrawal notices, as these are the main catalysts that could shift probabilities. Recent ATP daily schedules confirm Draper is returning to action, but no final confirmation of Diallo’s participation has been published yet [4].

The settlement window ends on 2 July 2026 at 13:30 UTC, and if the match is not completed within seven days of the original date, the market resolves to 50-50. Traders must monitor real-time scoreboards on ESPN and Tennis TV for match commencement and completion status [7][8]. Any delay beyond the seven-day threshold or a cancellation before play will trigger the tie resolution, making timing and official confirmations critical to assessing risk.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.