Wimbledon ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jaume Munar

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the second-round Wimbledon men’s singles match between Jacob Fearnley and Jaume Munar, set to begin on 2 July 2026 at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the named outcome occurs—here, if Fearnley advances—while a NO share pays if he does not. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market expects Munar to win, though this contrasts sharply with expert models.

Historical betting data and simulation models show Munar as the slight favourite, with Dimers’ 10,000-match simulations assigning him a 54.6% win probability versus Fearnley’s 45.4%[1]. Online bookmakers list Munar at -156 and Fearnley at +175, reinforcing Munar’s edge[1]. Yet the 0% crowd probability appears anomalous, possibly reflecting a liquidity gap or delayed price adjustment rather than a true consensus, as comparable cases in early Wimbledon rounds often see probabilities converge toward model expectations within hours of match start.

Traders should monitor official Wimbledon updates for any schedule changes, weather delays, or player withdrawals, as these can reset probabilities instantly. TennisTemple notes the match is scheduled for Court 12 at 12:30 local time, with conditions of 18°C and 19 km/h winds[7]. Any announcement confirming the match’s start time or player readiness will be the primary catalyst for price movement, especially given the settlement window ending 8 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Wimbledon ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jaume Munar across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.