Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas

Platform comparison

Market context

A YES share in this market pays out if Jesper de Jong wins his Swedish Open match against Vilius Gaubas and advances; a NO share pays if Gaubas wins or if the match resolves to the 50-50 default. The crowd currently prices de Jong’s chance at 69%, implying he is the clear favourite to progress in this July 13, 2026 encounter.

De Jong, a 26-year-old Dutch right-hander, reached a career-high ATP ranking of No. 71 in January 2026 and has won 36 of his last 65 matches over the past 52 weeks, showing consistent but not dominant form [1][2]. In comparable European clay-court events earlier in 2026, players ranked between 70 and 80 with similar win rates (roughly 55%) have been priced between 60% and 72% when facing opponents ranked 90–110, suggesting the 69% line aligns with historical patterns for this ranking gap rather than an outlier [2].

Traders should monitor the official ATP draw confirmation and any pre-match injury reports, as cancellations or delays beyond seven days trigger the 50-50 settlement [1]. Gaubas’s recent schedule and fitness status are key dependencies; if he withdraws or arrives late due to travel, de Jong’s implied probability could shift sharply. The match is scheduled to start at 4:00 AM ET on 13 July, with settlement finalised by 20 July 2026, so any delay announcements before that window will directly impact pricing [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.