Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Milavsky and Duncan Chan are set to face off in a Granby Challenger tennis match, originally scheduled for 13 July 2026, where the winner advances to the next round. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the market will resolve to Daniel Milavsky advancing, while a NO share means you expect Duncan Chan to win or the match to end in a tie, cancellation, or unresolved delay. This specific market currently shows a 100% crowd-implied probability for YES, suggesting near-universal confidence in Milavsky’s advancement.

Historically, such extreme probabilities in tennis prediction markets often align with strong pre-match odds favouring one player. In this case, betting platforms list Milavsky at 1.5 odds with a 58% win probability, while Chan sits at 2.375 odds with 42% [1][3]. Tennis Tonic also picks Milavsky to win in three sets, reinforcing the market’s lean [1]. Comparable cases show that when odds and expert picks align tightly with crowd sentiment, the probability rarely shifts unless unexpected factors emerge.

Traders should monitor official tournament updates for match delays, cancellations, or player withdrawals, as these could trigger the 50-50 settlement clause. With the settlement window closing on 20 July 2026, any postponement beyond seven days from the original date without a winner will nullify the current certainty. Although no recent news has altered the outlook, checking the Granby Challenger schedule and player status reports remains essential before the match begins [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.