Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A professional tennis match between Karl Poling and Andre Ilagan is scheduled for June 6, 2026, in Tyler, with the contest originally set for 12:30 PM Eastern Time. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that Poling advances, whilst a NO share represents a bet that Ilagan advances. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market participants assess Ilagan as the overwhelming favourite, though such extreme probabilities warrant scrutiny given the inherent uncertainty in individual matches.

The 0% reading is unusual in tennis prediction markets, where even heavily favoured players typically retain modest implied win probabilities. This extreme positioning may reflect significant disparities in ranking, recent form, or head-to-head records between the two players. Historical precedent shows that when professional matches feature stark skill gaps—particularly in lower-tier tournaments—the favourite's probability often settles between 75% and 95%, depending on surface, conditions, and recent performance data. The complete absence of YES probability here suggests either Ilagan holds a decisive advantage or limited market liquidity has created pricing distortions.

Traders should monitor whether the match proceeds as scheduled or faces postponement, as the settlement window extends only seven days beyond the original date. Any official announcements regarding player injury, withdrawal, or venue changes would materially affect resolution. Recent ATP and ITF tournament schedules should be cross-referenced to confirm both players' participation in the Tyler event and their current competitive status heading into early June 2026.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.