Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the quarter-final tennis match at the Swedish Open between Andrey Rublev and Sebastian Baez, scheduled for 17 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that the specified outcome will occur, while a NO share bets it will not. This specific market resolves to Rublev if he advances, to Baez if he wins, and to a 50-50 split if the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days, or ends in a walkover where the first set is not completed.

Historically, markets pricing a match at 100% YES for a winner are exceptionally rare in professional tennis, as even dominant players face injury risks or unexpected upsets. Comparable cases from recent ATP tournaments show that probabilities above 90% usually reflect a significant skill gap, yet they rarely reach absolute certainty unless a player has already withdrawn before the match begins. Current modelling from Dimers and Tennis.com projects Rublev with a 59–60% win probability, suggesting the crowd-implied 100% figure may be an anomaly or a mispricing rather than a reflection of actual match dynamics [3][4].

Traders should monitor official ATP announcements for any withdrawal notices or schedule changes, as a walkover before the first set triggers a 50-50 resolution [2]. Key catalysts include pre-match fitness reports and the official start time confirmation, since delays beyond the seven-day window also force a split settlement. Given the discrepancy between the crowd price and statistical models, the primary dependency is whether the match proceeds as scheduled without administrative intervention [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.