Liege: Andres Santamarta vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is a men’s professional tennis match in Liege between Spain’s Andres Santamarta Roig and Gilles Arnaud Bailly, originally set for 5:00 AM ET on 7 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market resolves to the named outcome—here, that Santamarta advances—while a NO share pays if he does not. The current crowd-implied probability of YES is 0%, suggesting traders believe Santamarta is virtually certain to lose or the match will not produce a winner favouring him.

Historically, 0% probabilities in tennis markets often precede matches where one player is injured, withdrawn, or vastly outclassed. For instance, in 2024, several ATP Challenger events saw 0% YES odds when a top-ranked player faced a debutant with no professional wins, and the result was a straight-set loss. Santamarta, aged 19 and ranked 89 in ATP singles with zero titles, faces a steeper path than his junior accolades suggest, as noted in his ATP profile[2].

Traders should watch for official withdrawal notices from the Liege tournament organiser, changes to the match schedule, or injury updates from either player’s team. Recent ATP Tour coverage highlights how late withdrawals can reset market probabilities, especially when a player’s fitness is uncertain[2]. With the settlement window ending 14 July 2026, any delay beyond seven days without a winner would trigger a 50–50 resolution, making schedule adherence a critical catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Liege: Andres Santamarta vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.