Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Nicolas Arseneault

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the Granby Challenger tennis match between Aleksandar Vukic and Nicolas Arseneault, which took place on 15 July 2026. The contest concluded with Vukic defeating Arseneault 2–0, meaning the market will resolve to “Aleksandar Vukic” as the advancing player [1]. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the stated outcome occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the 100% YES price reflects the match result already being known.

Historically, markets with 100% implied probability after an event’s completion are rare in live trading but common in post-result settlement windows, where prices converge to certainty once the outcome is indisputable. Comparable cases include finished Grand Slam matches where odds locked at 100% for the winner before the settlement deadline, eliminating arbitrage risk for holders of the winning share.

Traders should monitor the official settlement confirmation from the Granby tournament organisers and any delay notices, though none are expected given the match finished within the scheduled window [2]. The settlement window closes on 22 July 2026 at 13:00 UTC, and unless the match is officially declared cancelled or delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the 50–50 tie outcome will not apply. With the result confirmed, the only remaining dependency is administrative confirmation of the winner for final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Nicolas Arseneault across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.