ITF Granby: Erika Sema vs Cadence Brace

Platform comparison

Market context

Erika Sema and Cadence Brace are set to face off in an ITF Women’s Granby match, where the market asks whether Sema will advance past Brace. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the stated outcome occurs—in this case, if Sema wins the match—while a NO share pays if she does not. The current crowd-implied probability of YES sits at just 1%, suggesting traders heavily favour Brace.

Historically, such extreme probabilities in lower-tier ITF events often reflect late withdrawals, injury concerns, or mismatched rankings rather than pure form. In similar Granby tournaments, matches with sub-5% probabilities have occasionally resolved to the 50-50 clause when players cancel before starting, especially in women’s singles where scheduling volatility is common. This outcome rule means if the match is not played, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the market splits evenly, neutralising the 1% bias.

Traders should monitor official ITF updates and player social channels for withdrawal announcements or schedule changes, as these are the primary catalysts here. The match was originally scheduled for 16 July 2026 at 6:00 PM ET, and with today being 17 July, any delay beyond the seven-day window would trigger the 50-50 resolution. Recent ITF communications confirm that Granby events remain active, but no specific update on Sema or Brace has been published yet, leaving the 1% probability intact until new information emerges[1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.