ITF Rochester: Maxime St-Hilaire vs Joaquim Almeida

Platform comparison

Market context

Maxime St-Hilaire and Joaquim Almeida are set to face off in an ITF Men’s singles match in Rochester, originally scheduled for 15 July 2026. The prediction market asks whether St-Hilaire will advance past Almeida, with YES shares representing a bet that he wins and NO shares that he loses or the match is unresolved. A YES share pays out if St-Hilaire advances; a NO share pays out if Almeida advances or if the match ends in a tie, is cancelled, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner, in which case the market resolves to a 50–50 split.

Historically, ITF-level matches in the US summer circuit often see early cancellations due to weather or player withdrawals, which can trigger the 50–50 settlement clause. In similar ITF events in 2024 and 2025, matches delayed by rain or illness resolved to 50–50 when no winner was determined within the seven-day window, reflecting the market’s built-in hedge against uncertainty [1]. The current 0% YES probability suggests the crowd expects either Almeida to win or the match to be unresolved, possibly due to St-Hilaire’s recent form or scheduling conflicts.

Traders should monitor the official ITF tournament schedule for any updates on match timing, player availability, or weather-related delays. Key catalysts include official announcements from the tournament organiser regarding cancellations or postponements, as well as real-time score updates once the match begins. Since the settlement window ends on 22 July 2026, any delay beyond that date without a winner will lock in the 50–50 outcome. Recent ITF tournament reports highlight that mid-week matches in Rochester are frequently affected by afternoon heat or sudden rain, making timing a critical factor [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.