Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a women’s singles match at the Nottingham Open between Marie Bouzkova and Emma Navarro, and the market pays out on which player **advances** rather than on who was originally favoured or who won earlier rounds. In prediction markets, a **YES** share here means Bouzkova advances against Navarro, while a **NO** share means Navarro advances; if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed more than seven days without a winner, the market resolves 50-50.

A current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES normally means the market is priced as if Bouzkova’s advance is certain. That is a strong signal, but it should be read alongside the actual tournament position: a WTA match listing shows Bouzkova v Navarro scheduled in Nottingham, while reporting on the event says the pair met in the final and that Bouzkova had beaten Karolina Pliskova in the semi-finals and Navarro had progressed through her own semi-final.[4][6][7] In practical terms, the relevant comparison for a trader is not just player quality, but whether the match is officially on the order of play and whether either player withdraws before first serve.

The main catalysts are late schedule changes, withdrawals, retirements and any tournament-level disruption such as rain, because grass-court events can be sensitive to timing. If the match begins but is not completed, resolution turns on who advances under the event’s rules, so live tournament updates matter more than pre-match sentiment; a listed start time of 11:00 UTC on Centre Court is one concrete checkpoint to watch.[4] Recent coverage also framed Navarro as the slight betting underdog against Bouzkova, which is useful context, but the market outcome still depends on whether the match is actually completed and which player advances.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.