Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Martyna Kubka and Yeon-Woo Ku are scheduled to meet in the Figueira da Foz Ladies Open on hard court, and the market will settle on whichever player advances from that match-up. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the named outcome happens, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, that means the key question is simply which player progresses, rather than who wins more broadly across the tournament.[3][4]

A current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are treating a Kubka advance as effectively absent, but that should be read cautiously in tennis markets because prices can stay pinned when the bracket or match status is already resolved elsewhere. Comparable listings for this event show the same fixture as a quarter-final on 19 June 2026, which indicates the market is tied to a specific scheduled match rather than a long-running player form debate.[3][4][10]

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the match is actually played, whether it starts on time, and whether an on-court winner is recorded before the seven-day settlement window closes on 26 June 2026. A cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that point would force a 50-50 outcome under the market rules, while a retirement or walkover after play begins would still resolve to the player who advances.[1][3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.