Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the first-round qualifying match at Wimbledon between Varvara Lepchenko and Anastasia Gasanova, scheduled for 23 June 2026 on Court 13 in London. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market’s specified outcome occurs—here, that Lepchenko advances—while a NO share pays if she does not. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders overwhelmingly expect Lepchenko to lose, despite head-to-head odds from Tennis Tonic favouring Gasanova at 1.6 to 2.26, with a pick for a three-set win [2].

Historically, 0% probabilities in early-stage tennis qualifiers often signal a walkover, injury, or severe mismatch rather than a genuine competitive forecast, as seen in prior Wimbledon qualifiers where players withdrew before play began. Traders should monitor official WTA and Wimbledon announcements for walkover notices, player fitness updates, or court changes, as these can instantly shift pricing. Recent coverage from Tennis Tonic highlights Gasanova’s edge in this first-time meeting, noting no prior head-to-head record between the players [2]. Any delay beyond seven days or cancellation before a ball is played would resolve the market to a 50–50 fair price, per the contract rules [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.