Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Liudmila Samsonova and Katerina Siniakova are playing a first-round match at the Bad Homburg Open, and in this market a **YES** share means Samsonova advances, while a **NO** share means Siniakova advances. The market’s crowd-implied probability of 100% YES indicates the market is pricing in a near-certain Samsonova win, but the actual settlement still depends on the official match outcome and the tournament’s result status if the match is not completed.[2][3][7]

For context, these markets are easiest to read as a snapshot of expected advancement rather than a forecast of set score or match quality. The pair have met before on grass in Bad Homburg, with Siniakova winning their 2024 meeting in three sets, so a one-sided price is not the same thing as a guaranteed result on court.[1] Recent live listings also show the match as a scheduled main-draw contest on the Bad Homburg grass courts, underscoring that any late change to the schedule, withdrawal, retirement, or weather interruption could matter more to settlement than pre-match sentiment.[2][3][5]

Traders should watch for official updates from the tournament on whether the match starts, is postponed, or finishes with a winner, because the market rules switch to 50-50 if the match is cancelled, ends in a tie, or is delayed by more than seven days without a winner.[2] The main practical catalyst is therefore simple: whether Samsonova or Siniakova is officially recorded as advancing, as that is what determines the outcome regardless of how heavily one side is favoured in the crowd price.[2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.