Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a women’s singles tennis match at the Lexus Eastbourne Open, a WTA 250 tournament played on outdoor grass courts in Eastbourne, United Kingdom, between 22 and 27 June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share means you profit if the specified outcome occurs—here, if Tereza Valentova advances past Ajla Tomljanovic—while a NO share profits if she does not. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the market currently treats Valentova’s win as virtually impossible, suggesting strong expectations that Tomljanovic will prevail or the match may not happen as scheduled.

Historically, 0% probabilities in tennis markets often precede cancellations due to injury, weather, or player withdrawals, as seen in prior grass-court tournaments where top players pulled out before first-round matches. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 Eastbourne Opens show that when a player’s fitness is uncertain, markets can freeze at extreme odds until official updates arrive. Traders should monitor the WTA’s official injury reports and the tournament’s daily schedule, particularly any announcements regarding Valentova’s participation, as a recent WTA update noted several players withdrawing from grass events due to physical strain [5].

Key catalysts include the official draw confirmation, any late player substitutions, and weather conditions at Devonshire Park Lawn Tennis Club, where matches typically start at 11:00am. If Valentova is absent from the final list, the 0% probability will likely hold; if she appears but is listed as doubtful, the market may shift. The settlement window ends 10:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, so all relevant news must surface before then to alter the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.