Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump resigning or being removed from the US presidency before 31 July 2026 is the real-world event underpinning this prediction market, where a YES share pays out if the event occurs and a NO share pays out if it does not. The current crowd-implied probability of just 1% suggests traders view such an outcome as highly unlikely, a stance that aligns with historical precedents. Only three US presidents have ever been impeached by the House: Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998, and Donald Trump in 2019 and 2021[1]. In every instance, the Senate acquitted the president, as convicting requires a two-thirds majority which was never achieved[2]. Trump’s two impeachments resulted in acquittals with votes of 48–52 and 47–53, meaning he remained in office both times[3]. This consistent historical pattern of Senate acquittal frames why the market assigns such a low probability to removal.

Traders should monitor specific catalysts that could shift this probability, including formal announcements of resignation, votes in the House of Representatives, or Senate trial schedules. While the Supreme Court has recently expanded presidential power, declaring executive authority “exclusive” and immune from congressional interference, this legal landscape makes removal even more difficult unless a clear constitutional violation emerges[4]. A recent report noted that the Smithsonian removed a board referencing Trump’s impeachments from its presidency exhibit, highlighting the ongoing political sensitivity surrounding his record[6]. Key dependencies include whether the House initiates new impeachment proceedings and whether the Senate can secure the necessary two-thirds vote for conviction, a threshold that has never been met in presidential trials. Any announcement of resignation before the settlement date would immediately resolve the market to YES, regardless of when the resignation takes effect.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.