Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A prediction market share represents a bet on whether a specific event will occur. A YES share pays out £1 if the event happens by the deadline; a NO share pays out £1 if it does not. This market asks whether Donald Trump will sign a written U.S.–Iran agreement by 31 July 2026. The 19% implied probability reflects the crowd's assessment that such a deal is unlikely within that timeframe, though not implausible. Traders holding YES shares profit if Trump (or another listed individual acting in official capacity) signs any bilateral agreement with Iran before the settlement window closes.

The historical record offers mixed signals for interpreting this probability. Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, citing its inadequacy and pursuing a "maximum pressure" sanctions strategy instead. However, Trump has also demonstrated willingness to negotiate directly with adversaries—most notably with North Korea in 2018–2019, resulting in the Singapore summit. The question hinges on whether a second Trump administration would pursue rapprochement with Iran or maintain the confrontational posture of his first term. Previous administrations took years to negotiate major nuclear agreements, suggesting compressed timescales work against YES outcomes.

Near-term catalysts include Trump's cabinet appointments and foreign policy statements following his return to office, expected in early 2025. Any shift in rhetoric towards diplomatic engagement with Iran, or statements from Trump's negotiating team regarding Iran talks, would move markets materially. Conversely, escalation in regional tensions—particularly involving Israel, Saudi Arabia, or proxy conflicts—typically hardens positions against negotiation. The market will also track whether Iran signals openness to talks, as unilateral U.S. overtures without reciprocal Iranian interest would substantially reduce deal probability.

Methodology

We track Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.