Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Sam Bankman-Fried, the former FTX co-founder serving a 25-year federal sentence for fraud, has formally petitioned President Donald Trump for a pardon. This market asks whether that clemency will be granted before 31 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning only a 2% chance to a “Yes” outcome. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the low probability reflects the stark reality that Trump has publicly ruled out pardoning SBF.

Historically, presidential pardons are rare and heavily influenced by political alignment. During his first term, Trump issued 238 pardons and commutations, yet he explicitly excluded SBF in a January 2026 New York Times interview, grouping him with figures he would not pardon [1]. A recent precedent involves former Representative Stephen Buyer, who received a pardon for insider trading last week, but Buyer was a Republican ally, whereas SBF was a major donor to the Democratic Party [2][7]. This political disconnect, combined with Trump’s stated intent, frames the 2% probability as grounded in precedent rather than speculation.

Traders should monitor official announcements from the White House and the Department of Justice’s Pardon Attorney Office, where SBF’s application is listed among over 20,000 requests [3]. Any shift in Trump’s stance would likely emerge through a press statement or interview, though no such indication exists yet. The White House has declined to comment on this matter, reinforcing the current outlook [1]. With the settlement window ending in 2026 and no credible catalyst for clemency, the market remains anchored in the president’s explicit refusal.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.