Clacton by-election Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is Nigel Farage’s announcement that he will resign as the MP for Clacton, triggering a parliamentary by-election in Essex. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market’s specified outcome occurs—here, that Farage wins the by-election—while a NO share pays out if he does not. With the crowd-implied probability at 95% YES, traders are betting heavily on his victory, a stance anchored in the constituency’s unique political landscape.

Historically, Clacton has seen a similar by-election in 2014, when Douglas Carswell, then a Conservative MP, defected to UKIP, resigned, and won re-election as the UKIP candidate with 59.7% of the vote[1]. That precedent shows how a dominant local figure can retain a seat even after triggering a by-election, especially when major parties decline to contest. Today, Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats have all ruled out standing candidates, framing the contest as Farage’s “establishment versus the people” showdown[2][7].

Traders should watch for official confirmation of the by-election date from Tendring District Council and any shifts in Farage’s campaign strategy or financial disclosures, which The Economist recently flagged as a potential distraction[4]. The Greens have also confirmed they will not stand, further narrowing the field[6]. With Reform UK projected to hold the seat with 97% probability in future general elections[3], the current 95% YES probability reflects a near-certain outcome, barring an unexpected candidate entering the race or the election results remaining unknown by the settlement deadline of 30 June 2027.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.