2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 U.S. Open is taking place at Shinnecock Hills, and this market pays **YES** only if the named player is among the golfers who make the 36-hole cut and continue into the weekend; **NO** means they miss the cut or the event cannot settle under the rules. In prediction-market terms, a YES share is a claim that the outcome happens, while a NO share is a claim that it does not, so the current 0% implied probability says the market is pricing an extremely unlikely make-the-cut result rather than a literal impossibility.

That framing matters because the U.S. Open cut is usually unforgiving. Comparable recent reporting on Shinnecock suggested the projected cut was around **four over par**, with DataGolf giving that line a strong likelihood, and the event advances only the top **60 players and ties** after 36 holes.[1][2][4] In other words, traders are not betting on a normal PGA Tour cut where par might be enough; they are effectively wagering on whether the player can survive one of golf’s toughest score filters at a major venue known for penal conditions.[8]

The main catalysts are simple but important: the player’s score after Friday’s second round, the official cut number announced by the USGA, and any rules-based outcome that makes qualification impossible before the cut is final.[2][6] Because the settlement window runs to 21 June, the key watchpoint is whether play is completed on schedule and the cut is officially confirmed within that period; the US Open’s own schedule and live coverage remain the most relevant sources for that confirmation.[6][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.