# of views of next MrBeast gaming video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The key event is whether MrBeast Gaming’s next upload reaches a specified view bracket in its first 24 hours, with the market resolving only after that full window closes. A **YES** share pays out if the video lands in the bracket matched by the market’s range rules; a **NO** share pays if it does not. If no upload arrives by 30 June 2026, the market falls to the lowest range bracket, which is the main downside case traders need to factor in.

The 0% YES implied probability suggests the crowd sees the targeted view range as either very unlikely or priced far below the market’s current bracket structure. That is not unusual for a channel with highly variable performance: MrBeast Gaming’s uploads are episodic and can swing sharply depending on the concept, game, and how prominently the video is surfaced to subscribers and recommendations. The channel page also states a regular cadence of “every single Saturday at noon eastern time”, which gives traders a scheduling anchor, but it does not guarantee that the next upload will be a gaming video or that it will clear any particular view threshold.[2]

The main catalysts are simple: whether the channel posts on schedule, whether the upload is on MrBeast Gaming rather than the main MrBeast channel, and how broadly the video is promoted in the first hours after release. Past MrBeast-related launches show that the wider franchise can still generate strong attention around major releases, including *Beast Games* season two arriving in January 2026 and continuing through late February, which illustrates the broader audience pull around the brand.[1][5][9] Traders should also watch for any announcement of a delayed upload or a shift towards another project, because the market’s settlement depends entirely on the first 24-hour view count once the next gaming video actually appears.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.