Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is whether 2026 will become the hottest, second-hottest, or lower-ranked year in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index record. A YES share means you believe 2026 will rank as the single hottest year (number 1), while a NO share means you expect it to rank lower. Currently, the crowd assigns a 34% probability to 2026 being number 1, implying most traders expect it to fall behind 2024 and possibly 2023 or 2025.

Historical patterns and recent forecasts suggest 2026 is unlikely to top the list. Berkeley Earth estimates the most probable outcome is a fourth-place ranking, with only a 10% chance of first place and a 21% chance of second [2]. This aligns with the World Meteorological Organization’s report stating it is likely (86% chance) that *one* year between 2026–2030 will surpass 2024, but not necessarily 2026 itself [1]. The ongoing La Niña cooling pattern further reduces the likelihood of record warmth in 2026 compared to the extreme heat of 2023 and 2024 [2].

Traders should monitor monthly temperature releases from NOAA and the EU Climate Service, particularly for June and July 2026, which will shape the annual average. Recent data shows January 2026 was the fifth-warmest January on record, and May 2026 was the second-highest May in 177 years [3][8]. A shift toward stronger El Niño conditions later in the year could alter the trajectory, but current indicators point to a cooling trend relative to recent peaks. The final resolution will depend on the full-year Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index once all 2026 data is compiled.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.