Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will determine the outcome of this weather prediction market. A YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specific range the trader selected; a NO share pays out if it does not. With the crowd currently implying a 0% chance for YES, the market suggests traders expect the temperature to land outside the chosen range, though settlement remains open until midday UTC on the event date.

Historical data from Amsterdam in mid-July shows daytime highs typically range between 20°C and 26°C, with rare spikes above 30°C during heatwaves. The current 0% probability implies the selected range is likely set for an extreme outlier, such as below 15°C or above 32°C, which contradicts seasonal norms. Comparable cases from 2022 and 2023, when Europe faced intense heat, saw Schiphol reach 31–33°C, yet even those events did not breach 35°C, framing the current odds as a reflection of range mismatch rather than temperature impossibility.

Traders should monitor the European Centre for Medium-Weather Forecast (ECMWF) daily updates and the Dutch meteorological office (KNMI) bulletins for any emerging heatwave signals or cooling fronts ahead of 16 July. While no specific announcements are scheduled for this date, sudden shifts in Atlantic pressure systems could alter temperatures by several degrees. The resolution source, Wunderground, will publish the official reading shortly after 12:00 UTC, making real-time weather dashboards the primary catalyst for final price movement before settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.