Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will fall into one of several predefined ranges. A YES share represents a bet that the temperature will land in a specific bracket (for instance, 90–95°F); a NO share bets it will not. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, and Wunderground's historical weather database will determine the outcome. This market effectively asks traders to forecast Atlanta's peak summer heat on a single day roughly eighteen months forward.

Atlanta's July temperatures are remarkably consistent. The city's thirty-year average high for mid-July sits around 89°F, with records rarely exceeding 100°F at the airport station. The all-time July record for the area is 100°F, set in 1980. Most years see highs between 85°F and 95°F during this period. The current 0% probability assigned to YES suggests the crowd expects the eventual temperature range to fall outside whichever bracket is being priced, or reflects uncertainty about which specific range will be offered at settlement.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather patterns as summer 2026 approaches. La Niña or El Niño conditions, if present, could shift regional temperature trends. The National Weather Service typically refines its seasonal outlooks three months in advance, providing data points around April 2026. Urban heat island effects around the airport—influenced by ongoing construction or changes to surrounding infrastructure—could also influence recorded temperatures, though such shifts are usually marginal. Historical volatility in Atlanta's daily highs during July typically ranges within 10–15°F from the seasonal mean.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.