Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded on 10 July 2026 at Beijing Capital International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share indicates you believe the outcome will fall within the specified temperature range, while a NO share means you expect it to be outside that range. The current crowd-implied probability of 95% YES suggests traders are highly confident the temperature will land in the predicted bracket, likely reflecting Beijing’s typical July heat patterns.

Historical data frames this confidence: July is Beijing’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging around 31°C (88°F) and rarely dropping below 26°C (78°F)[3]. In 2023, temperatures reached 40°C (104°F), and the city’s all-time record stands at 41.9°C (107°F), recorded on 24 July 1999[2][8]. Recent years show intensifying heat, with China experiencing its hottest July on record in 2024, averaging 23.21°C nationally[10]. These trends support the high probability that July 10 will see temperatures well above 29°C.

Traders should monitor official weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and Wunderground updates for the ZBAA station, as sudden shifts in monsoon activity or urban heat anomalies could alter outcomes[9]. Authorities have recently urged residents to limit outdoor exposure during extreme heat, signalling heightened awareness of rising temperatures[2]. No major climate announcements are scheduled, but daily radar data and humidity reports will be critical dependencies for refining price movements before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.