Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market targets, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the selected range.

Historically, Beijing’s July highs are formidable, often reaching around 31–32°C (88–96°F), with the month’s average high sitting near 31.7°C [3]. In 2023, temperatures surged to 40°C, and the city’s all-time record stands at 41.9°C from July 1999 [1][2]. Given this backdrop, a 0% probability implies the market’s chosen range is likely far above typical July extremes, perhaps exceeding 42°C, which has never been observed in modern records.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from Chinese meteorological authorities and real-time data from Wunderground, the official resolution source [2]. While no specific heatwave announcement has been issued for 11 July 2026 yet, recent trends show China experienced its hottest month in recorded history in July 2024, with averages eclipsing previous peaks [10]. Any sudden spike in humidity or pressure systems could push temperatures higher, though current forecasts for July 2026 suggest highs between 28–37°C [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.