Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 July 2026, the Beijing Capital International Airport Station will record its peak daily temperature, which determines whether this prediction market resolves to YES or NO. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs (the temperature falls within the specified range), while a NO share pays out if it does not. Currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the market’s defined range.

Historical data shows Beijing’s July highs frequently exceed 35°C, with 2023 reaching 40°C and 2024 marking China’s hottest July month in recent history [1][5][9]. The average daily high in July is around 31°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 26°C (78°F) [2]. Given this pattern, a 0% YES probability is unusual unless the market’s range is set unusually high or low, prompting traders to scrutinise the exact resolution thresholds.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for heatwave announcements from Chinese meteorological authorities [1][7]. An intensifying heat dome over the North China Plain has already driven temperatures above 37°C in early July 2026, a trend that could persist [10]. Any official heat warnings or shifts in cloud cover and humidity will directly influence the final temperature reading at the airport station.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.