Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specific range you selected, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the lowest range, implying traders expect temperatures well above that threshold.

Historical data frames how to interpret this near-zero probability for cooler outcomes. July is Beijing’s hottest month, with average highs near 31°C and frequent spikes into the mid-30s; in 2023, the city reached 40°C in July, and June 2023 saw a record 41.1°C [2][3]. The market’s frontrunner is 34°C at 42%, followed by 33°C at 31%, reflecting confidence that temperatures will exceed 30°C but likely stay below extreme heatwave peaks [1].

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for heatwave announcements from Chinese meteorological authorities, as these directly influence peak temperatures [1]. Recent reports note that northern China has experienced persistent high temperatures, with Beijing hitting 41.8°C during a 2023 heatwave, suggesting that atmospheric conditions remain a key catalyst [9]. Since settlement depends solely on the day’s maximum at ZBAA, real-time updates from Wunderground’s history page will be the primary dependency for price movements [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.