Highest temperature in Beijing on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 July 2026, the Beijing Capital International Airport Station will record its highest daily temperature in degrees Celsius, a single real-world data point that determines whether YES or NO shares settle. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the market currently implies a 0% chance for the specific outcome labelled YES, suggesting traders believe that temperature range is virtually impossible.

Historical climate data shows Beijing experiences a temperate monsoon climate with hot, humid summers, where mid-July highs typically range between 30°C and 37°C[2]. Current trading activity on similar platforms indicates the market frontrunner is 33°C at 39%, followed by 34°C at 27%, reflecting collective confidence that temperatures will fall within this band rather than the extreme implied by the 0% YES probability[1]. This divergence highlights how crowd sentiment often corrects initial mispricing as traders analyse comparable weather patterns.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, which publishes the highest temperature recorded for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station at the end of each day[1]. No specific announcements or schedules will alter the outcome, as the result depends solely on the physical temperature recorded; however, sudden shifts in monsoon precipitation or heatwave intensity could rapidly adjust probabilities before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.