Highest temperature in Beijing on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the selected condition, while a NO share pays out if it does not. This specific market resolves to the temperature range containing that peak heat, with settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 4 July 2026. The crowd currently implies a 0% chance for a YES outcome on the selected condition, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside that range.

Historical data frames how to interpret this low probability. July is Beijing’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging around 88°F (31°C), rarely dropping below 78°F (26°C) or exceeding 96°F (36°C) [3]. Recent years show extreme volatility: in 2023, Beijing reached 40°C (104°F) in July, and in June 2024, the city hit a record 41.8°C during a heatwave [5][7]. National records confirm China’s July 2023 average temperature was the highest in recent history at 23.2°C, 1.1°C above the 2017 benchmark [4][6]. Given these precedents, a 0% YES probability appears unusually conservative unless the selected range is exceptionally narrow or low.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather model updates and official heatwave advisories from China’s National Climate Center, which often precede extreme temperature spikes. While no specific announcement for 4 July 2026 exists yet, the agency’s recent statements on record-breaking heat patterns signal heightened risk for July extremes [6]. Dependencies include humidity levels and cloud cover, which directly influence peak temperatures at the airport station. Wunderground will provide the final resolution data, so real-time feeds from that platform are critical as the settlement window closes [1]. The thin trading volume on related markets also suggests uncertainty, making early position adjustments prudent before volatility increases.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.