Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the Beijing Capital International Airport Station will record its highest temperature for the day, determining the outcome of this weather prediction market. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the market resolves to the specific Celsius range containing that peak temperature, sourced from Wunderground’s daily history for the station.

Historical data frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for any single outcome as a reflection of the market’s multi-outcome structure rather than a belief that no heat will occur. July is Beijing’s hottest month, with average maximums near 33°C and frequent peaks reaching 35–36°C under clear skies, while records show temperatures hitting 42°C on 5 July 2010 and 40°C in recent summers [2][4][6]. The market’s leading outcome is “34°C” at 59%, followed by “33°C” at 25%, indicating traders expect typical July highs rather than extreme anomalies [1].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground as the day progresses, since the settlement depends solely on the highest temperature recorded at the airport station before 12:00 UTC. No scheduled announcements or policy changes affect this outcome; the only catalyst is the actual atmospheric conditions on 5 July. Recent years show Beijing experiencing scorching heat with temperatures above 40°C on multiple days in July 2023, reinforcing that high temperatures are climatologically normal for this period [3][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.