Highest temperature in Beijing on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded on 7 July 2026 at Beijing Capital International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the outcome will fall within a specific range (for example, 32°C or higher), while a NO share means you believe it will not. Currently, the crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome is 0%, suggesting traders see little chance of that threshold being hit, though this reflects collective sentiment rather than certainty.

Historically, July in Beijing is the hottest month, with daily highs averaging around 31°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 26°C or exceeding 36°C [3]. In 2023, temperatures reached 40°C, and in July 2024, China recorded its hottest month in recent history, with average temperatures surpassing previous records [4][5]. Despite these extremes, the current 0% probability may reflect a conservative view of this year’s forecast, possibly due to expected cloud cover or monsoon activity.

Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source [2]. Recent reports highlight that Beijing authorities have urged residents to limit outdoor exposure during heatwaves, indicating active monitoring of extreme temperatures [6]. Any sudden shifts in forecast models, particularly those predicting prolonged high-pressure systems, could significantly alter market probabilities before the settlement window closes on 7 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.