Highest temperature in Beijing on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and verified by Wunderground. A YES share in this prediction market means you are betting the temperature will fall within a specific range (for example, 32°C or higher), while a NO share means you expect it to stay below that threshold. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders collectively believe the temperature will not reach the upper range being wagered on, likely expecting conditions closer to Beijing’s typical early-July highs.

Historical data frames this low probability: July is Beijing’s hottest month, with an average high of 31.1°C (88°F), yet extreme spikes are possible. In 2023, temperatures reached 40°C, and in 2024, Beijing hit 41.1°C on its second-hottest day ever[5]. However, day-to-day variability is considerable, and recent markets show outcomes clustering around 32°C rather than higher extremes[2]. On 8 July 2026, the frontrunner was 32°C at 100%, indicating a collective view that temperatures will not surge dramatically beyond this point[1].

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from official Chinese meteorological sources and Wunderground updates for real-time temperature readings, as sudden heatwaves or cloud cover can shift outcomes. While no specific government announcement is scheduled for 9 July, regional heatwave advisories issued by the National Meteorological Centre of China often precede extreme temperatures[6]. Given the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 9 July, the final Wunderground record for that day will be the sole resolution source, making timely data access critical for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.