Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 15 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. In prediction markets, traders buy YES or NO shares on specific outcomes. A YES share pays out if the event occurs; a NO share pays out if it doesn't. Here, the market settles based on the single daily maximum temperature logged by Wunderground's historical weather database for that station on that date. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, meaning traders must commit their positions before the final reading is confirmed.

Beijing's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C. The current 0% probability assigned to YES suggests the crowd expects the outcome to fall outside whichever temperature band the market has designated as YES—a common pattern when markets are structured with multiple competing ranges rather than a simple binary. Reviewing Wunderground's historical records for Beijing in mid-June across prior years provides the most reliable baseline: the station has recorded temperatures as low as 24°C and as high as 35°C during this period, though the median sits closer to 30°C.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early June 2026, particularly any alerts for heat waves or unusual pressure systems affecting northern China. Seasonal monsoon patterns and any lingering effects from El Niño or La Niña conditions could shift temperatures materially. The airport station's readings are unambiguous and publicly archived, eliminating settlement disputes, but the wide historical variance means even modest shifts in atmospheric conditions will determine which range captures the day's peak.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.