Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 28 June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specified range, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not reach the threshold in question.

Historically, late June in Beijing has seen extreme heat. In 2023, the city recorded 41.1°C, its hottest June day in over 60 years, smashing prior records amid a returning heatwave[1][2]. Typical June highs range from 29°C to 32°C, rarely exceeding 36°C unless cold air is absent[3][4]. Given this pattern, the 0% probability may reflect confidence that the threshold is set above plausible extremes, or that a cooling system will intervene.

Traders should monitor official heatwave announcements from China’s National Meteorological Centre and any scheduled cold-air injections, which can sharply reduce temperatures. Recent reports confirm Beijing is bracing for blistering heat as heatwaves return to northern China, with temperatures soaring past 41°C in similar conditions[1]. The settlement relies on Wunderground data for the airport station, so any discrepancies in reporting or sensor errors could affect resolution. Watch for updates on regional weather models and emergency cooling schedules as the day approaches.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.