Highest temperature in Beijing on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and verified by Wunderground. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the selected range, while a NO share wins if it does not; here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting strong confidence that the temperature will not hit the proposed threshold.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: Beijing recorded its hottest June day in over 60 years on 21 June 2023, when temperatures reached 41.1°C, a figure that also marked the city’s second-highest temperature ever [1][5]. Average June highs in Beijing typically range from 29°C to 32°C, rarely exceeding 36°C, though the month usually includes about ten days with highs at or above 35°C [3][4]. Given that the 2023 peak of 41.1°C was an extreme outlier, the current 0% probability likely reflects a belief that 2026 will not replicate such record-breaking heat, aligning with the typical upper bounds of June weather.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration for emerging heatwave forecasts, as these often precede temperature spikes [1]. Recent news confirms that heatwaves have returned to northern China, with authorities warning of blistering conditions in late June 2023, a pattern that could recur if similar atmospheric drivers develop [5]. No official announcements have yet been made for June 2026, so the key dependency remains the absence of a sustained high-pressure system capable of pushing temperatures beyond historical norms. Watch for real-time Wunderground updates as the settlement window closes, since these provide the definitive resolution data.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.