Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Cape Town International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the selected condition, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd has assigned a 0% probability to any YES outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered.

Historical data frames this extreme confidence: July is Cape Town’s coldest month, with average highs at the airport reaching only 17°C (63°F) and lows near 8°C (46°F) [1]. While Cape Town has seen record highs of 45.2°C at Table Bay in summer, such extremes are virtually impossible in mid-winter July, when cold fronts and record rainfall are typical rather than heatwaves [2][4]. The current 0% probability aligns with decades of climate records showing winter temperatures rarely exceed 20°C at this station.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the South African Weather Service for any anomalous cold-front shifts or unseasonal warmth, though none are forecast for this date. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for Cape Town International Airport (FACT) at any time on 13 July [2]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 13 July 2026, no further catalysts are expected to alter the outcome, as winter conditions remain stable and well-documented.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.