Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the selected range, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance for the specific range offered, suggesting traders expect the temperature to land outside that bracket.

Historical July climatology for Chengdu shows average daily highs between 28–30°C, with peak midsummer days often reaching 36–39°C due to humidity and monsoon influences in the Sichuan Basin [1][3]. The hottest recorded day in recent history hit 38.6°C in August 2022, while typical July peaks cluster around 33–38°C [10]. Given that the market-implied odds peak at 38°C and cluster between 36–39°C, the 0% probability for the current range likely reflects a mismatch with these established patterns rather than an expectation of unusually cool conditions [1].

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration, especially any announcements of record heatwaves, as China experienced its hottest July on record recently with temperatures exceeding 40°C in several regions [6]. Since settlement relies on Wunderground data for the Shuangliu station, any gaps or delays in that feed could affect resolution timing, though no such issues are currently reported [8]. The key catalyst remains the actual temperature reading at 11 July, with basin geography favouring high-30s outcomes [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.