Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 16 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the highest temperature falls within the specific range defined by the market, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. Currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not reach the threshold set for that option.

Historical data for Chengdu in July shows typical highs around 31°C, with significant rainfall exceeding 238 mm expected across the month, often keeping temperatures moderated [1]. The current 0% probability likely reflects the high likelihood of wet conditions and cloud cover, which frequently suppress peak temperatures in this region during mid-summer. Comparable cases from previous years show that heavy rain events in July often result in highs staying below 30°C, making extreme heat less common than in dry, sunny spells.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts for Chengdu, particularly announcements regarding rainfall intensity and cloud cover, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature suppression [2]. The settlement depends entirely on data from Wunderground for the Shuangliu station, so any discrepancies in reporting or station-specific anomalies could influence the final outcome. Since July coincides with the Chinese school summer holiday, increased urban activity may slightly elevate local temperatures, but the dominant factor remains the expected significant rainfall and wet conditions [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.