Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The outcome is the **highest temperature** recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 20 June, with settlement based on the specific Wunderground station history page for that day. For someone new to prediction markets, a **YES share** pays out if the event lands in the stated range, while a **NO share** pays out if it does not; here, the key question is not whether Chengdu is warm, but which temperature band the day’s maximum ultimately falls into.[3][5]

The current **0% YES** price signals that traders are assigning no probability to the listed range at present, which may reflect either a narrow band or a market that has not yet attracted much liquidity. Historically, Chengdu’s June weather is warm and often humid, with typical June highs around the upper 20s Celsius and airport-area climate data showing the hot season already underway by late spring; recent June forecasts for the airport have also pointed to daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, showing that a wide range of outcomes is plausible.[1][2][4][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are the local forecast trend, the timing of afternoon thunderstorms, and any shift in cloud cover or rain intensity before the settlement window closes. A published forecast for 20 June from AccuWeather shows a hot day with a heavy afternoon thunderstorm, which matters because convective rain can cap the maximum temperature if it arrives early enough; the Wunderground settlement will use the highest observed value up to the cutoff, so late-day heat before storms still counts.[8][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.