Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 July 2026, the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station will record its highest temperature for the day, a single real-world data point that determines whether this prediction market resolves to YES or NO. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the market asks whether the temperature falls within a specific range, with the current crowd-implied probability of YES sitting at 0%.

Chongqing is one of China’s hottest cities in summer, frequently exceeding 40°C in mid-July, with historical records showing peaks near 44°C in recent years. The current 0% YES probability suggests the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the offered range, likely because the range is set unusually low or the market is illiquid. Comparable cases from 2022 and 2023 show that mid-July highs in Chongqing almost always land between 38°C and 43°C, making any range below 38°C highly improbable for a YES outcome.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily history page for ZUCK, which will publish the confirmed highest temperature by the settlement deadline of 12:00 UTC on 17 July. No announcements or schedules will alter the outcome, as the result depends solely on the recorded temperature at the airport station. Since weather in Chongqing is driven by regional heat patterns rather than discrete news events, the key dependency is the reliability of the Wunderground data feed, which has historically aligned with China Meteorological Administration records.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.