Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded on 2 July 2026 at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the outcome will fall within the specified temperature range, while a NO share means you expect it to fall outside that range. Currently, the crowd-implied probability for YES is 0%, suggesting most traders doubt the temperature will reach the threshold in question.

Historically, July is Chongqing’s hottest month, with average highs around 33°C and summer temperatures often soaring between 25°C and 35°C, sometimes feeling as high as 43°C due to humidity and the urban heat island effect [1][2][6]. The city is famously known as one of China’s “Four Furnaces,” where temperatures frequently exceed 35°C, making extreme heat a regular feature rather than an anomaly [7]. Given this climate pattern, a 0% probability for a high-temperature threshold appears unusually low unless that threshold is set well above typical July extremes.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts and any official announcements from local meteorological services regarding heatwaves or extreme weather alerts, as these can shift temperature expectations quickly. Recent climate data confirms that Chongqing’s rainy season runs from June to August, which may temporarily moderate temperatures but rarely eliminates extreme heat [2]. With settlement ending on 2 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the final resolution will rely on Wunderground’s recorded daily maximum for the airport station, so real-time updates from that source are critical for accurate positioning [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.