Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the peak temperature recorded on 26 June 2026 at Chongqing’s Jiangbei International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the outcome will fall within the specified temperature range, while a NO share means you expect it to fall outside that range. This particular market resolves based on the highest temperature logged for the entire day, sourced from Wunderground, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 26 June 2026.

Historically, Chongqing enters its hot season around 20 June, with average daily highs exceeding 85°F (about 29.4°C) through early September [3]. Past June data shows daytime averages near 28.7°C, but extremes can reach 43°C, as seen in 2022 when the city hit 43.2°C on 23 August [7]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not reach the specified range, possibly due to expectations of cloud cover or rain, which are not uncommon in late June despite the onset of summer heat [5].

Traders should monitor the subtropical high-pressure ridge, which has been pushing over the Sichuan Basin in recent weeks and could drive temperatures toward 31–32°C if it strengthens [2]. Key catalysts include official weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration and any scheduled rainfall forecasts for the Chongqing region. A recent analysis from Lines.com highlights that ridge movements are the primary driver of peak temperatures in this period, making them a critical dependency for price action [2]. No moralising is needed—just watch the ridge and the forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.