Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 July 2026, Dallas will experience its peak daily heat at the Love Field station, a real-world event that this market tracks by resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing that highest temperature. In prediction markets, a YES share pays £1 if the selected outcome occurs, while a NO share pays £1 if it does not; here, the 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific unlisted range suggests traders overwhelmingly expect the temperature to fall within the leading 98–99°F bracket, which commands 98% of the market’s attention [1].

Historical July data frames this probability: Dallas Love Field’s average high in July sits near 94°F, yet forecasts for July 2026 project daily highs between 96°F and 102°F, aligning closely with the market’s frontrunner [2]. Past summers show similar volatility, with North Texas officially recording its first 100°F day of 2026 in early July, and the region’s all-time record standing at 113°F from 1980 [7]. The current 0% probability for lower ranges reflects this consistent trend of mid-summer heat exceeding 95°F in recent years.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for KDAL (Love Field) on 12 July, as real-time maximum temperature readings will determine settlement [3]. The resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history page for KDAL, which publishes the official highest temperature once the day concludes [9]. No external announcements or schedules will alter the outcome; the market depends solely on the recorded temperature at the specified station, with odds shifting continuously as new data emerges [1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.